1Q25 Retail Sales: Strong Growth Despite Negative Macroeconomic Environment


TL;DR: Retail sales growth accelerated to +4.5% in 1Q25, with eCommerce maintaining steady momentum at +6.1% and B&M accelerating to +4.2% under easier year-over-year comparables. Despite macroeconomic concerns, consumer spending remains resilient, although growth is increasingly concentrated in platforms delivering value and convenience, reinforcing the critical role of eCommerce in 2025 and beyond.


2 minute read

The U.S. Census Bureau released its 1Q25 eCommerce sales report, which we use as an important input into our own market-wide and company-level forecasts.

The following key data points, takeaways, and shareable one-page summary quantify and contextualize 1Q25 growth trends for eCommerce and B&M channels in the U.S. We also provide our updated retail forecasts for 2025 and 2026.

It’s designed to give retail leaders a concise snapshot of current growth trends and a deeper understanding of what’s driving them, as well as how the retail landscape is likely to evolve through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

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