TL;DR: Viral Amazon products rarely justify second-mover investment, and most brands are chasing the wrong signals, benchmarking against category leaders that are defending declining share and applying flat RoAS targets across their portfolio. The path forward is a disciplined framework for separating durable demand from short-term noise, oriented around attribute-level themes rather than the hero SKUs trending this quarter.
3 minute read
On Amazon, ingredients go viral, new formats quickly redefine subcategories at unprecedented speed, and 3P sellers pile into demand spikes before most brands’ innovation teams can react. Reading those signals incorrectly or too slowly results in failed launches, second-mover investments that don’t recoup development costs and misallocated ad spend.
We hosted Tom Werle, COO of Jungle Scout, to share a structured framework for separating real, investable Amazon growth signals from short-term noise. Drawing on data spanning search behavior, product launches, and conversion trends, Tom walked through how to identify which consumer shifts are reshaping categories and which will fade.
Not All Growth is Equal
Tom opened by framing how not all growth is sustainable and not all trends are worth betting on. For example, Squishmallows search volume is down 42% year-over-year as of March 2026, with Labubu down 86% from its peak roughly a year ago. Both remain meaningful businesses, but both are well past their breakout windows, meaning any brand just now designing a competitive response is chasing demand that has already peaked. Meanwhile, NeeDoh is up 4,381% year-over-year and is now entering its own breakout phase, which means the window for a competitive response is already closing for any brand without an in-market product.
Thus, the core question for retail leaders making innovation, assortment, or media allocation decisions today is how to separate sustainable demand from short-term noise before committing investment.
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