Updated May 2025 Amazon Forecasts: 2023-2026


TL;DR: Amazon’s gross merchandise value (GMV) is projected to decelerate from +8.5% in 2024 to +6.7% in 2025, although it is still projected to outperform the global retail market by 2-3x. Advertising is expected to grow +18.6%, outpacing the broader digital ad market.


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Stratably is sharing a new detailed forecast view of Amazon for digital leaders benchmarking their own growth and/or needing to compare Amazon to its retail rivals.

The shareable, one-page forecast summary includes 2023-2026 annual estimates across product segments, regional gross merchandise value (GMV), and additional datapoints. We also show individual quarterly estimates for 2025.

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