August 23, 2023
In follow-up to our analysis of retail sales in 2Q23 published on Monday, we’re now looking into the balance of the year to understand what ’23 and ’24 might have in store for growth.
The goal is to share our updated full-year forecasts following 2Q results and examine how digital and physical channels will contribute to growth over that timeframe to assist brands, agencies and retailers in their planning efforts.
Key Takeaways
- Lowering retail sales forecast for ’23 and ’24 to 2.6% Y/Y and 3.2% Y/Y, respectively
- Digital projected to outgrow physical channel sales by 690 basis points in ‘23
- Digital forecast to contribute 45-50% of dollar growth in ’23 for total retail market
- Combined, Amazon, Walmart and Target projected to grow 6% Y/Y in ‘23, slightly lower than our prior forecast for 6.2% but ahead of the broader market
- Digital sales at these three retailers are forecast to grow 10.8% compared to 1.2% for their physical store channels
- 60%+ of Walmart’s dollar growth projected to come from its online channels in ’23 and ‘24
- Amazon projected to outpace the market by 760 basis points in ‘23
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