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Amazon Fresh delivered much weaker results than it targeted in 2021, driven by overly ambitious growth estimates, industry-wide supply chain challenges, and company-specific operational issues.
Those that have worked on the platform for years will recognize this as part of a common two-year cycle.  Amazon Fresh pairs aggressive targets with aggressive asks in the first year, only to deliver disappointing results. Then, the next year, it pairs modest targets with more reasonable asks, as brands point to the underperformance as to why they simply can’t “invest ahead of the curve again”.
2022 appears to be the second part of this cycle, with Amazon forecasting modest growth for the business, despite ambitious plans to triple the number of physical stores it operates.  Negotiations with vendors have been uneventful as the modest growth expectations have been matched with reasonable program asks for many.

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