August 15, 2022

6 minute read

 

The last research I published on macroeconomic themes was five weeks ago, assessing the results from CPG brands General Mills, McCormick and Simply Good Foods. At the end of May, I reviewed commentary from category-focused retailers.

  • In May, the research highlighted the sharp reversal in investor sentiment within tech and the retailer results were finally starting to show shifts in consumer behavior because of changing spending habits and inflationary pressures.
  • In July, elasticities continued to trend lower than normal, there were some cracks in upper income consumers starting to pull back, and a fuller picture of the over-inventoried general merchandise segment was becoming well understood.

 

Over the last five weeks, there have been a mix of positive and negative macroeconomic datapoints. The Fed has raised rates, consumer brands have pushed more price through, the S&P is up 11% over that time, gas prices have started to retreat, and the latest consumer sentiment reading is better than expected. We’re still in an eCommerce Winter for the most part, although Amazon’s GMV reaccelerated in the June quarter.

 

In other words, forecasting is not any easier sitting here today than it was a month ago!

 

But we will get a great deal of information this week when Walmart, Target and the homecenters report results. In anticipation of that, I summarized commentary from Spectrum Brands, Flowers Food, Black Rifle Coffee Co. (BRCC), Nomad Foods, and Primo Water to help you understand the latest thinking from consumer brands across categories.

 

Each of these companies reported results last week, helping determine what, if anything, has changed with the consumer, inflationary outlooks, and supply chain issues.

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